The Toronto Marathons - Math Fun?

[runshorts]

I am hoping that someone with speedier spreadsheet skills or more time on their hands than me can find an answer to this question .... In 2009 how many people ran BOTH the Toronto Waterfront and Toronto marathons (just the full marathon)?

[Garrett]

162 people. PM me if you want list.

[La]

Wow, less than an hour turnaround on your question! Either Garret had already done the analysis, or he's pretty darned speedy with Excel!

[runshorts]

Thanks to you and your lightening quick skills! So of the ~1900 folks who finished Toronto, over 8% had just run Waterfront. Interesting.

[BJH]

Since Garrett has the data at hand ...

Which race is faster?

[Garrett]

Since Garrett has the data at hand ...

Which race is faster?

Toronto Scotiabank Waterfront Marathon:

Average: 4:16:32
Median: 4:12:09


Toronto Marathon:

Average: 4:07:00
Median: 4:00:46

[BJH]

That's for the folks that ran both?

[purdy65]

Interesting!

[Irongirl]

That's for the folks that ran both?

If it's for the folks that ran both, then, I wouldn't say it's entirely accurate, since there's a good possibility that if they were planning on running both, they would have used waterfront as a long run, and the Goodlife as their A race.

[BJH]

That's for the folks that ran both?

If it's for the folks that ran both, then, I wouldn't say it's entirely accurate, since there's a good possibility that if they were planning on running both, they would have used waterfront as a long run, and the Goodlife as their A race.

Or the other way around. Ideally, the selection of the A race would be randomized ending with 50% selecting each race as an A race.

To use the overall mean for the race, you have to pick races that attract similar groups of runners. In general, larger races tend to attract the extra runners from the slower side of the mean. Boston would be the exception.

My actual question should have been: of the folks who ran both, which race had the faster average time.

[Irongirl]

That's for the folks that ran both?

If it's for the folks that ran both, then, I wouldn't say it's entirely accurate, since there's a good possibility that if they were planning on running both, they would have used waterfront as a long run, and the Goodlife as their A race.

Or the other way around. Ideally, the selection of the A race would be randomized ending with 50% selecting each race as an A race.

To use the overall mean for the race, you have to pick races that attract similar groups of runners. In general, larger races tend to attract the extra runners from the slower side of the mean. Boston would be the exception.

My actual question should have been: of the folks who ran both, which race had the faster average time.

good points.

it sure seems like I'm picking on you these days, eh?! sorry about that.

so, we're still waiting to hear if Garrett's data is for those that ran both, or, all.

[La]

My actual question should have been: of the folks who ran both, which race had the faster average time.

Wouldn't they roughly have the same results as the population?

I'm thinking of scenarios for people I know who have run both:

1) They ran Waterfront, had a crappy race, didn't achieve their goals and figured, "Toronto is only 3 weeks away, let me try again."
2) Toronto was their goal race and they ran Waterfront as a long training run
3) They planned all along to run both (because they are gluttons for punishment)

[Irongirl]

My actual question should have been: of the folks who ran both, which race had the faster average time.

Wouldn't they roughly have the same results as the population?

I'm thinking of scenarios for people I know who have run both:

1) They ran Waterfront, had a crappy race, didn't achieve their goals and figured, "Toronto is only 3 weeks away, let me try again."
2) Toronto was their goal race and they ran Waterfront as a long training run
3) They planned all along to run both (because they are gluttons for punishment)

hmm....that would be interesting to see.

my immediate thought was that if you were able to run 2 marathons within 3 weeks of each other, you are probably fitter than the average marathoner....therefore, I would guess that the average and mean of the "ran both" group would be faster than the overall average and mean.

[La]

To use the overall mean for the race, you have to pick races that attract similar groups of runners. In general, larger races tend to attract the extra runners from the slower side of the mean. Boston would be the exception.

That would be interesting to see - whether larger races have slower median/average times. Somehow I think there are too many other factors influencing mean times.

For example, Disney is not a HUGE marathon (it's big, but not NYC/Chicago big) and it likely has one of the slowest mean times.

Also, are there other race factors (elevation, hilliness, etc.) that impact times? Or were there race day-specific influences (e.g., Chicago 2007)?

[La]

my immediate thought was that if you were able to run 2 marathons within 3 weeks of each other, you are probably fitter than the average marathoner....therefore, I would guess that the average and mean of the "ran both" group would be faster than the overall average and mean.

Or just more stupid than the average marathoner.

Toronto has a faster mean/average time - is that because it's an easier/faster course, or because it attracts a higher caliber of runner? The winning time at Waterfront is usually significantly faster than the winning time at Toronto due to the limited presence of elite runner at Toronto.

[BJH]

My ac tual question should have been: of the folks who ran both, which race had the faster average time.

Wouldn't they roughly have the same results as the population?

I'm thinking of scenarios for people I know who have run both:

1) They ran Waterfront, had a crappy race, didn't achieve their goals and figured, "Toronto is only 3 weeks away, let me try again."
2) Toronto was their goal race and they ran Waterfront as a long training run
3) They planned all along to run both (because they are gluttons for punishment)

I think the difference would be in the tail. There is a self fulfilling prophecy in having good support for the back of the pack. Misery loves company, so the more support you have for runners at the tail end of the pack, the more you will attract and the more that will need that support at the slower times.

If the folks who run two close together are randomly selected form the middle of the pack, they might give you more data about the actual difference in difficulty. Is TWM really 9 minutes slower on average or is the difference a bit closer when you look at similar populations.

[turd ferguson]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

[BJH]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

If we're going to hunt someone down and out them so they never run again, we have to search for them in other races, too, eh?

[La]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

Oooooo, H A M P O!!! We haven't talked about him in a while!

Jo-Jo is particularly good about outing cheaters - ask her!

[turd ferguson]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

Oooooo, H A M P O!!! We haven't talked about him in a while!

Jo-Jo is particularly good about outing cheaters - ask her!

*****

Just verifying that the banned word stayed banned when we moved over to the new phpbb.

[Irongirl]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

Oooooo, H A M P O!!! We haven't talked about him in a while!

Jo-Jo is particularly good about outing cheaters - ask her!

I can't recall what jojo story you're talking about......

[Irongirl]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

Oooooo, H A M P O!!! We haven't talked about him in a while!

Jo-Jo is particularly good about outing cheaters - ask her!

*****

Just verifying that the banned word stayed banned when we moved over to the new phpbb.

appears to have!

*****!

tee hee.

[Garrett]

My apologies, the first comparison was all runners, here are those that finished both races:

Toronto Waterfront Marathon:

average: 4:10:12
median: 4:04:55


Toronto Marathon:

average: 4:03:27
median: 4:00:05

[La]

If you've got the Toronto Marathon stats on a spreadsheet, screw comparing the stats to other marathons. Let's out the cheaters! Find the subway-takers! Y'all know what I'm talking about.

Oooooo, H A M P O!!! We haven't talked about him in a while!

Jo-Jo is particularly good about outing cheaters - ask her!

I can't recall what jojo story you're talking about......

She outed a former colleague who had obviously cheated or cut the course short.

[Irongirl]

Toronto Waterfront Marathon:

both races average: 4:10:12
overall average: 4:03:27
both races median: 4:04:55
overall Median: 4:12:09


Toronto Marathon:

both races average: 4:03:27
overall Average: 4:07:00
both races median: 4:00:05
overall Median: 4:00:46