Who thinks Lance could win at Kona?

[jamix]

He came in 3rd at St. Croix

Based on this and his previous results, I'd guess the best he could hope for is a top 10, given the amount of competition there'll be. On the other hand, Lance had a real talent for peaking when it counts, as obviously demonstrated by his 7 tour De France wins, but less than stellar results in other high profile races (ex other tours, Olympics, world championships). I wonder if during all these 70.3 races, he's been competing at his physiological limit, or if its all just a build up to Kona where his fitness spark will ignite .

[Wu wei]

He came in 3rd at St. Croix

Based on this and his previous results, I'd guess the best he could hope for is a top 10, given the amount of competition there'll be. On the other hand, Lance had a real talent for peaking when it counts, as obviously demonstrated by his 7 tour De France wins, but less than stellar results in other high profile races (ex other tours, Olympics, world championships). I wonder if during all these 70.3 races, he's been competing at his physiological limit, or if its all just a build up to Kona where his fitness spark will ignite .

Lance can't run fast enough, and can't get that speed+endurance in less than 6 months (or ever).
End of story.

[jamix]

On the other hand, Normann Stadler, won it in 2006 by cycling a 4:18 and then running a 2:55 for the marathon. Lance could hypothetically do that.

[Mark.AU]

I think he can make top 5, but unless something freaky happens to his main competition that's about the best he could hope for. We'll know a bit more after IM France - though even that result will be mitigated by it being such a great bike course for him.

[Wu wei]

On the other hand, Normann Stadler, won it in 2006 by cycling a 4:18 and then running a 2:55 for the marathon. Lance could hypothetically do that.

No. Stadler is (was) a much better runner than Lance. Also, the tactics have changed in Kona since 2006.

Only a suicide mission gets any time into T2 on the pack. Chris Lieto does it every year... but he gets paid more by Trek to blast the bike than he'll ever make if he actually tried to win.

Kona is now more like ITU... smart pack riding. Conserve energy, blast the run.

Also, beware of reading too much into run splits of race winners. Smart race leaders shut it down when they know they have it in the bag. It's much safer to ease up and keep the gap only as big as needed to get the win. Age groupers go for PB's, Pros go to win. In short, Stadler may have been able to run sub 2:50 that day... but he didn't need to.

All this is moot if Lance doesn't even start the race...

[jamix]

I think he can make top 5, but unless something freaky happens to his main competition that's about the best he could hope for. We'll know a bit more after IM France - though even that result will be mitigated by it being such a great bike course for him.

Yeah IM France will be a good indicator. Lance's marathon pb of 2:46 appears kinda slow given he can go sub-1:20 in heat after cycling 90 km, which implies he's either improved his running ability since that marathon, or rather (like many people), his marathon running ability is significantly lower than what he can achieve when he races lower distances. Not everyone can run a respectable marathon, even if they're half marathon performance is satisfactory. If this is that case, he might be getting a good dose of reality come June .

[jamix]

On the other hand, Normann Stadler, won it in 2006 by cycling a 4:18 and then running a 2:55 for the marathon. Lance could hypothetically do that.

No. Stadler is (was) a much better runner than Lance. Also, the tactics have changed in Kona since 2006.

Only a suicide mission gets any time into T2 on the pack. Chris Lieto does it every year... but he gets paid more by Trek to blast the bike than he'll ever make if he actually tried to win.

Kona is now more like ITU... smart pack riding. Conserve energy, blast the run.

Also, beware of reading too much into run splits of race winners. Smart race leaders shut it down when they know they have it in the bag. It's much safer to ease up and keep the gap only as big as needed to get the win. Age groupers go for PB's, Pros go to win. In short, Stadler may have been able to run sub 2:50 that day... but he didn't need to.

All this is moot if Lance doesn't even start the race...

Your making a lot of assumptions here. FYI; Chris McCormack tends to follow a "push hard on the bike" philosophy.

I too suspect he won't win. As I mentioned in my first post, the idea that he could win was based on the idea of whether or not he's been in "peak form" for all of these 70.3 races. Lance is a smart guy, and he knows how to properly find his best form when it really counts.

[Wu wei]

Your making a lot of assumptions here. FYI; Chris McCormack tends to follow a "push hard on the bike" philosophy.

I too suspect he won't win. As I mentioned in my first post, the idea that he could win was based on the idea of whether or not he's been in "peak form" for all of these 70.3 races. Lance is a smart guy, and he knows how to properly find his best form when it really counts.

Macca doesn't ride alone. Pushes hard, but with help. It's ITU+.

You don't peak for Ironman, the way you do for bike racing. There are no rest days where they push half a litre of fresh blood into your body so that you can destroy the next days mountain stage. Although I'm sure if he's serious about Kona, he'll be stocking his refrigerator there in September.

If he's not running 1:14 in a 70.3 now.. he has ZERO chance of breaking the tape first at Kona in less than 6 months.

I'm going to put my money on Rasmus Henning this year. Or Sebastian Keinle.

[ROW]

He might crack top 10.

[FishHog]

For his age, I think he is doing a pretty impressive job getting back into Triathlons.
Will he win KONA, no I don't think that is likely. But I do think he will have an impressive result. He is in the ballpark, but not quite at the top of the pack. Then again, maybe he is sandbagging a little.

Either way, I think he is going to do a lot for the sport and that is a good thing. I'm sure Kona will be great this year. Wish I could be there to enjoy it and the hype Lance will bring along with him.

FishHog

[RobAllen]

He has done 3 races. Finishes of 2nd, 7th and 3rd. In St. Croix it was the first time he had the fastest bike split. By far his toughest field was the Texas 70.3 where he finished 7th. Texas was very deep but still only about 1/5th of the number of high caliber athletes that will be in Kona.

How will he do in his next races. He will probably win in Honu against a usually weak field. He will do well in Florida with another top 3. He will win in Nice unless he falters on the run. Fantastic results and amazing accomplishments but I don't see him in the top 10 at the finish line in Kona.

It will be interesting if he does the Honu and Florida races as he cannot increase his Kona points totals with those events. The Nice race is a 2000 point race. If he wins in Nice that would probably give him enough points to be in the first wave of Kona Qualifiers that happens at the end of July (top 40 in points). Not winning in Nice would have him close but possibly not making the top 40. If that happens he would have to jump into another full Ironman event to get more points.

Regardless, he will be racing in Kona whether he qualifies or not.

[jamix]

He has done 3 races. Finishes of 2nd, 7th and 3rd. In St. Croix it was the first time he had the fastest bike split. By far his toughest field was the Texas 70.3 where he finished 7th. Texas was very deep but still only about 1/5th of the number of high caliber athletes that will be in Kona.

How will he do in his next races. He will probably win in Honu against a usually weak field. He will do well in Florida with another top 3. He will win in Nice unless he falters on the run. Fantastic results and amazing accomplishments but I don't see him in the top 10 at the finish line in Kona.

It will be interesting if he does the Honu and Florida races as he cannot increase his Kona points totals with those events. The Nice race is a 2000 point race. If he wins in Nice that would probably give him enough points to be in the first wave of Kona Qualifiers that happens at the end of July (top 40 in points). Not winning in Nice would have him close but possibly not making the top 40. If that happens he would have to jump into another full Ironman event to get more points.

Regardless, he will be racing in Kona whether he qualifies or not.

Maybe I'm being a little ignorant, but that sounds like a tough point system. How are guys gonna have the energy to perform good at Kona if all they're energy is being used up just to qualify?

[RobAllen]

Maybe I'm being a little ignorant, but that sounds like a tough point system. How are guys gonna have the energy to perform good at Kona if all they're energy is being used up just to qualify?

That is a big issue. 40 spots (25 for women) are locked up at the end of July leaving only 10 spots (5 for women) for the top ten point earners not already selected. This leads to some pros doing Ironman events weeks apart to try to get enough points to get to Kona. Many have a performance bonus for an appearance there. After those 10 are selected then they go through the list and remove those who 1) are injured or 2) not interested. Last year the spots "rolled down" to about 56th overall in points.

What is worse is that races carry different point values. The reason Lance raced St. Croix was strategic in that the race offered more points for winning (750) than a regular 70.3 (500). His first two races were 1500 point championship races. On the Ironman side some races are 1000 points, most are 2000 points, Championship races are 4000 and Kona is 6000 points to win. 12th place in Kona gives more points than winning IM France. 15th place in Kona gives 1.5x the points than Ironman Australia.

Even if you win or have enough points by placing high in Kona the previous year, athletes are still required to validate their entry by at least finishing another Ironman race. This is why you sometimes have situations where Andreas Raelert raced at Regensburg last year injured. He made it a long training day and came in 2+ hours slower than he should have.

They went to the point system because a) they felt that the field was too watered down with working Pros (full-time day job) and b) it forces them to do more races which in turn creates stronger fields at all of the events.

Here are the rules and point allocations http://ironmanpromembership.com/im-qualifying/

[jamix]

Thanks Rob, thats really insightful!

[jonovision_man]

Not unless he's doped to the gills.

jono

[Jo-Jo]

Not unless he's doped to the gills.

jono

I have a feeling that he wouldn't be the only one who doped to win Kona. just my opinion.

[jonovision_man]

Not unless he's doped to the gills.

jono

I have a feeling that he wouldn't be the only one who doped to win Kona. just my opinion.

The doping controls are relatively lax (compared to cycling or Olympic tris) and being an endurance sport there is a lot to gain, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

jono

[Wu wei]

Not unless he's doped to the gills.

jono

I have a feeling that he wouldn't be the only one who doped to win Kona. just my opinion.

The doping controls are relatively lax (compared to cycling or Olympic tris) and being an endurance sport there is a lot to gain, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

jono

Without a blood passport system, it's impossible to detect a transfusion, because you need base values to compare against.
If you have the means to withdraw, store and infuse the blood... it's a HUGE advantage.
No drugs involved.. just your own blood.

Speaking of Lance... interesting comments in the latest issue of Men's Journal. He may become only a SIX time winner of the tour..... or less...

Also, if USADA sanctions lance.. this whole thread is moot. 2 year suspension would effectively retire him from sport.

[Ironboy]

Well, he just won IM 70.3 Florida in 3:45 and change. Granted it's no Energy Lab, but in my book, his odds just went up.

[Joe Dwarf]

He didn't just win, he crushed the competition - over 11 minutes ahead of 2nd!

[Mark.AU]

The competition was quite soft, and the course was perfect for him; I'd have very surprised if he didn't win this one. However, regardless of placement, it was a pretty impressive performance by most standards.

[Ironboy]

To be clear, I still don't think he has what it takes to win at Kona, but with that performance, he's on the right track.

[jamix]

He also ran faster this time too with his 1:15:56 running split . Go LANCE!

[jamix]

Go Lance !

..........completed the 1.2-mile swim yesterday in 23 minutes, 22 seconds, placing him third. He moved into the lead after covering the 56-mile bike ride in two hours, one minute, 46 seconds and sealed the win by running 13.1 miles in 1:22:30 for a total time of 3:50:55.

Greg Bennett and Chris Lieto, both Americans, were second and third in 3:53:41 and 4:05:55 respectively.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... thlon-race

More interesting, he beat Chris McCormack's course record too. This was right after McCormack himself said that he could "beat his ass senseless!".........

Looking forward to seeing how he does in the full Ironman. I hope he has it in him to extend his 70.3 fitness to the full without fatiguing too much .

[Wu wei]

The competition was quite soft, and the course was perfect for him; I'd have very surprised if he didn't win this one. However, regardless of placement, it was a pretty impressive performance by most standards.

Indeed.

June will be a very interesting month for Mr. Armstrong.