Race pace strategy

[jonovision_man]

McMillan is generally 5-10 minutes too optimistic for runners who are not HIGHLY experienced. If you had a recent series of races showing you lose VERY little speed as your distance went 5k/10k/Half, then I might try to meet McMillan. The average weekly training mileage of someone who meets a PROPER McMillan equivalancy is >100km per week. People with that training base are the runners who have the endurance to hold their speed. There are exceptions, but that is the average so just as many take MORE miles as those who do it with less.

The first marathon I did, it was bang on... but it was based on a 1/2 that was earlier that year (Feb) in the snow. So not exactly apples to apples, when you use these calcaulators it has to be with some consideration of the other factors.

Second marathon I was +11 minutes. McMillan told me to expect 3:33:22 (based on a recent 1/2)... I targetted 3:35, and came in at 3:44:06 - ouch! Not enough running mileage as you said, hoped I could push through on the strength of my cycling endurance... couldn't, muscles fatigued and I cracked.

Now it's telling me 3:22:28, again based on a recent half. Am I smart enough to have learned from last time?

jono

[Jwolf]

5-10 minutes? I wish...

[Joe Dwarf]

Yeah, the calculators are a little confusing. I ran a 10k in June, and then I ran a 2k TT a couple of weeks ago. McMillan predicts a slower marathon using the 2k result than the 10k, Daniels predicts a faster one.

My gut tells me I'm in better shape than in June, just how by I feel in my training runs. That TT was my first attempt at that distance and also 2 days after a 22k run with 18k at MP so I'm inclined to believe it's a bit soft. 10 seconds off the TT time results in 5 minutes off the McMillan prediction so there's definitely less leeway for error there. I really wish that I had been able to work in a longer race somewhere in late July or early August but there is nothing happening around here in that time.

So I think I will pay attention to the more experienced and start out at around 5:10. Now another question - supposing the miraculous happens and I feel like I could crank it up. When is a good time to make that call in a marathon?

[ian]

Now another question - supposing the miraculous happens and I feel like I could crank it up. When is a good time to make that call in a marathon?

Last 5-10K, but realize that you'll be cranking up the effort here anyway just to keep the pace, let alone speed up. I've seen too many decent runners run a smart first half, pick it up between 21 and 30, and then give all that time back on the last quarter of the race; even done it myself a few times.

[Joe Dwarf]

Now another question - supposing the miraculous happens and I feel like I could crank it up. When is a good time to make that call in a marathon?

Last 5-10K, but realize that you'll be cranking up the effort here anyway just to keep the pace, let alone speed up. I've seen too many decent runners run a smart first half, pick it up between 21 and 30, and then give all that time back on the last quarter of the race; even done it myself a few times.

That makes sense - probably if I'm not feeling like I could go faster before I hit 32k, I'm already going too fast.

[Jogger Barbie]

So I think I will pay attention to the more experienced and start out at around 5:10. Now another question - supposing the miraculous happens and I feel like I could crank it up. When is a good time to make that call in a marathon?

FWIW, based on my personal experience, somewhere around the 30 or 32 km point. If you feel like you're holding back at that point, you've got lots in the tank and it's time to go for it. Halfway is too early, as I learned the hard way in Ottawa in 2009...

[Jogger Barbie]

First marathon spring 2007

Hey, what a nice surprise to find out that we ran the same first marathon, and that we had almost the same first marathon time (mine was 3:40:16). Reading your report brought back lots of memories, specifically the sudden influx of half marathoners and the congestion at the finish line. Will never forget standing there in that crush of people, unable to move forward, back or sideways, and feeling my legs slowly cramp up. However, you ran a much smarter race. I went out too fast, then suffered my right hip seizing up around the 32 km point, after which I ran-walked through the most painful 10 km I had ever experienced...in the rain, as I recall...

[MichaelMc]

On a well paced marathon I spend most of the first half wondering if I wasn't being TOO conservative, somewhere around 28k I start thinking maybe not. At 32k it feels "right" (thank God I didn't pick it up!) and by 36k I wonder if I'll be able to hold it, but I resolve to hang on as long as possible. The last 2-3km I can usually pick it up a tiny bit.

So my answer is somewhere between 32 and 36k you will probably know.

[Joe Dwarf]

Sounds like a consensus. Thanks everyone. Off for my last long run now and then 2 weeks of taper before I put all this strategy to work.

[daddy_runner]

I usually go into a race with three goals:
A: A goal that is very ambitious but theoretically possible, I really don't expect to achieve it.
B: A goal that is very reasonable, but not easy.
C: A goal that is fairly soft. If I miss it, I suck.

I start off aiming for goal B. If everything is going right and I'm feeling ridiculously strong, flying like the wind, with a smile on my face, I'll speed up for A. If everything is going wrong, fire and brimstone are falling from the sky, cats & dogs start living together, I'll aim for beating C.

I think I've only come close to making my A goal once. Knowing that the C goal is there lets me relax and aim for B without worry that I'll "miss my goal". The only downside is if I ever miss my C (which I've only done once in a 12 hour race), I'm feeling pretty crappy and down on myself.

[West Grey Runner]

“Go big or go home” or “Reasonable Target” really depends on what it is you are trying to achieve.

Having a reasonable race plan and sticking to it is a key to success. In 2010 I blew Mississauga, having a 3:30 goal I crossed the ½ in 1:40 only to blow up in the last quarter finishing 6 minutes over my goal. In the fall I was looking for redemption at STWM. I was looking for a 3:30 again , crossed the ½ in 1:45 feeling great. With 5K to go I was still on pace and feeling good but I was only after a 3:30 , my BQ time. I didn’t want to take a chance so I held back until the last K then opened up finishing in 3:29:09. I am pretty sure I could have been a little bit faster that day but I didn’t want to risk blowing my goal…no regrets, Boston was fantastic!

I am back in Hog Town again in October for another crack at the SWTM. I seem to have a little more speed this year and I am running the same volume so my reasonable goal is 3:25. I am going to stick to my race plan running and even 5:00 pace through the ½ then pick up the pace gradually through the last 21.1k. Then again it may not be the day and regardless of going big or reasonable I could be looking at a 4 hour finish. Hey , there is always next time!

[Jogger Barbie]

A late addendum to this discussion. A few years ago, MichaelMc said something on one of these forums that really stuck with me: "You should reach the halfway point feeling like you could have gone just a little bit faster". My best marathons have been when a) I felt like that, and b) I didn't speed up at the half, but kept it steady until the 30 or 32 km point.

[erinmcd]

A late addendum to this discussion. A few years ago, MichaelMc said something on one of these forums that really stuck with me: "You should reach the halfway point feeling like you could have gone just a little bit faster". My best marathons have been when a) I felt like that, and b) I didn't speed up at the half, but kept it steady until the 30 or 32 km point.

I had a bit of an "aha!" moment too when I read that.

[jes]

I'm so bookmarking this thread to reread in another 50 days. Thanks for the good advice everyone!

[Jwolf]

I'm so bookmarking this thread to reread in another 50 days. Thanks for the good advice everyone!

did your marathon get pushed back 10 days?

[HCcD]

I'm so bookmarking this thread to reread in another 50 days. Thanks for the good advice everyone!

did your marathon get pushed back 10 days?

Think she is racing Niagara Falls Marathon as a final training run ....

[jes]

I'm so bookmarking this thread to reread in another 50 days. Thanks for the good advice everyone!

did your marathon get pushed back 10 days?

Isn't it in about 60 days? I figured I'd read the thread again during taper. Why are you guys making fun of me??

[erinmcd]

Since we're talking race pace strategy- how does everyone approach a 1/2? My thought for tomorrow is to go at goal pace (realistic but slightly aggresive), and then re-evaluate around 16 or 17km to see if I've got enough in the tank to pick it up, or just hold on to the end.
Any other thoughts on that?

[ian]

Since we're talking race pace strategy- how does everyone approach a 1/2? My thought for tomorrow is to go at goal pace (realistic but slightly aggresive), and then re-evaluate around 16 or 17km to see if I've got enough in the tank to pick it up, or just hold on to the end.
Any other thoughts on that?

Pacing a 21K race is more straightforward than 42K because you're likely to be limited by your cardio (as opposed to muscle fatigue or glycogen stores) and can get reliable feedback on this right from the beginning of the race. If your goal pace has been chosen well (i.e., based on data from other races or your recent training and appropriate to the course and conditions, as opposed to some round number wish), you'll probably have no problems in the first half and will know what to do from there. One thing that I find useful as I tire is to keep my breathing in a rhythm: 2-2 (2 steps in, 2 steps out) is the target for most of the middle part of the race and anything faster is only sustainable for the last 5-15 minutes.

[flexrun]

On a well paced marathon I spend most of the first half wondering if I wasn't being TOO conservative, somewhere around 28k I start thinking maybe not. At 32k it feels "right" (thank God I didn't pick it up!) and by 36k I wonder if I'll be able to hold it, but I resolve to hang on as long as possible. The last 2-3km I can usually pick it up a tiny bit.

So my answer is somewhere between 32 and 36k you will probably know.

Bang on Sir! That is the exact strategy that my coach instructed me to do when I went for my sub 3hrs in Ottawa last year. He told me at the half way mark that I should feel fresh but later in the race I would be thankful that I didn't push myself the first half and that is exactly what happened. You know your stuff Michael!

For the half, my coach instructed me to run it before my full as a fitness test in 1:23 and it taught me discipline. It was hard to do because I knew that I could have kept up and probably out ran most of the runners that were passing me. Part of me wanted to say the heck with my coach...I want to race not just use this as a time trial but the other half said to myself no you have to keep discipline just like you will have to do when you run the full. I finished the half very fresh and went on to run the full with confidence that I could run that first half no problem at a slower pace and knowing that I would have the discipline to run the correct pace needed.

Another thing that my coach has told me is racing never gets easier if you are running it to your full potential. You might get faster but it still hurts the same when you push yourself.

[HCcD]

When deciding on your race pace, do you set an aggresive target that will be a challenge to hit, or set a reasonable target that you should be able to accomplish if you run smart?

I've been thinking about this since yesterday. Background- my coach is recommending that I do my next marathon at a more conservative pace than I was planning for. My philosophy is more "go big or go home." I'd rather set an aggressive target and fall short than set a soft goal, hit it, and then wonder if I could have done better. I'm interested to see what other people do- especially those who have had unexpected PBs in a race.

I am starting to see the merit of ... no watch and Just Run with a pacer ... seems to be a good strategy, at least up to a 1/2 marathon distance ... And, am seriously thinking of following the 3:20:xx or 3:30:xx Pace Bunny in Hamilton, or stay in the middle of them for the marathon ...

[Jwolf]

When deciding on your race pace, do you set an aggresive target that will be a challenge to hit, or set a reasonable target that you should be able to accomplish if you run smart?

I've been thinking about this since yesterday. Background- my coach is recommending that I do my next marathon at a more conservative pace than I was planning for. My philosophy is more "go big or go home." I'd rather set an aggressive target and fall short than set a soft goal, hit it, and then wonder if I could have done better. I'm interested to see what other people do- especially those who have had unexpected PBs in a race.

I am starting to see the merit of ... no watch and Just Run with a pacer ... seems to be a good strategy, at least up to a 1/2 marathon distance ... And, am seriously thinking of following the 1:20:xx or 1:30:xx Pace Bunny in Hamilton, or stay in the middle of them for the marathon ...

don't you mean 3:20 or 3:30?

I dunno- that's a pretty big range. And it all depends on the pacers. I've been in races where they are not all great (Vancouver) and those where they are stellar (Portland). What's better about trusting someone else to set your pace rather than using a watch?

[HCcD]

When deciding on your race pace, do you set an aggresive target that will be a challenge to hit, or set a reasonable target that you should be able to accomplish if you run smart?

I've been thinking about this since yesterday. Background- my coach is recommending that I do my next marathon at a more conservative pace than I was planning for. My philosophy is more "go big or go home." I'd rather set an aggressive target and fall short than set a soft goal, hit it, and then wonder if I could have done better. I'm interested to see what other people do- especially those who have had unexpected PBs in a race.

I am starting to see the merit of ... no watch and Just Run with a pacer ... seems to be a good strategy, at least up to a 1/2 marathon distance ... And, am seriously thinking of following the 1:20:xx or 1:30:xx Pace Bunny in Hamilton, or stay in the middle of them for the marathon ...

don't you mean 3:20 or 3:30?

I dunno- that's a pretty big range. And it all depends on the pacers. I've been in races where they are not all great (Vancouver) and those where they are stellar (Portland). What's better about trusting someone else to set your pace rather than using a watch?

Oh yeah, fixed that ... thanx ... though, with that second half of the course in Hamilton, going sub-1:30:xx for the half marathon would be worth considering one day ...

Probably, eliminating the mental / pyschological headgames ... in trying to do the math, if one gets too anal about times and split times .. and, just run ... though, once you lose sight of the bunny, then it is a different game, I guess ...

[ian]

Probably, eliminating the mental / pyschological headgames ... in trying to do the math

You're at the perfect speed right now for doing marathon math: 5+5+5+... Once that gets too complicated to keep track of, the bonk is on its way.

[purdy65]

Meh! I find the mental math keeps my mind occupied. I actually welcome it.